Title: EDUCATION EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SIERRA LEONE: EVIDENCE FROM DISAGGREGATED PUBLIC SPENDING BY LEVEL

Author: Daniel Rince George

Abstract: Public investment in education is now widely seen as key to building human capital, improving productivity, and supporting sustainable economic growth, especially in low-income countries where skill shortages are common (UNESCO, 2026; World Bank, 2024a). Sierra Leone has made education a top policy priority through the Free Quality School Education programme and other reforms, but the country still faces challenges in learning, funding, infrastructure, and the job market that may limit the benefits of education spending (Government of Sierra Leone, 2024; UNICEF, 2025a; World Bank, 2025a). This study looks at how government spending on primary, secondary, and tertiary education relates to economic growth in Sierra Leone. The analysis uses annual data from the World Development Indicators and the UNESCO Institute for Statistics for 2007 to 2018, the years with comparable data on education spending by level. GDP per capita growth is the main outcome, with spending shares for primary, secondary, and tertiary education as the main explanatory variables. The study includes gross fixed capital formation and population growth as controls. The study uses descriptive statistics, trend analysis, Pearson correlation, and three simple ordinary least-squares models. On average, 43.90% of public education spending went to primary education, 23.00% to secondary, and 30.39% to tertiary. GDP per capita growth averaged 2.29% but was very volatile, ranging from −9.99% to 11.88%. The regression results showed a positive but statistically insignificant link between primary spending and GDP per capita growth (β = 0.100, p = .633), a negative but insignificant link for secondary spending (β = −0.300, p = .585), and a small negative and insignificant link for tertiary spending (β = −0.032, p = .836). Gross fixed capital formation was positive in all three models. These findings suggest that simply increasing spending is not enough to ensure economic growth; efficiency, learning quality, relevant curricula, supporting investments, and job market absorption are also important. Since only 11 data points were available, the regression results should be seen as exploratory, not definitive.

Keywords: Education Expenditure; Economic Growth; Primary Education; Secondary Education; Tertiary Education; Human Capital; Sierra Leone.

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